FIFA Qualifiers Twist: South Africa’s Points Deduction Boosts Nigeria’s 2026 World Cup Hopes

 

In the race for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Africa’s qualifying tournament has been full of surprises, controversies, and late twists. One of the biggest stories recently is how South Africa lost three points and how that change might help Nigeria stay alive in the race. Here is everything that happened, explained in simple terms.

In the African qualifiers, teams are divided into groups, and each group’s winner qualifies automatically for the World Cup. The runners-up do not go through automatically but could still qualify through playoffs if they are among the best-performing second-place teams. 

However, after Eritrea withdrew from one of the groups, that group had fewer teams, and this created an imbalance. To fix this, the Confederation of African Football (CAF) introduced a rule stating that when comparing second-place teams across all groups, results against the bottom team in each group would not be counted. This means that any points a team earns against the lowest-ranked side in its group will be ignored when determining the best runners-up.

This rule change, while aimed at fairness, ended up giving Nigeria a small advantage. But before that, another issue shook Group C. South Africa had beaten Lesotho 2–0 in March 2025, but FIFA later discovered that South Africa fielded an ineligible player, Teboho Mokoena, who was supposed to be suspended after receiving two yellow cards in earlier matches. 

The FIFA Disciplinary Committee ruled that this was a clear violation of the competition rules. As punishment, South Africa was stripped of the three points they earned from that match, fined 10,000 Swiss francs, and Lesotho was awarded a 3–0 victory by forfeit.

This point deduction changed everything in Group C. South Africa, who were at the top of the table, suddenly dropped down and lost their comfortable lead. Nigeria, who had been trailing, suddenly found themselves much closer in points. 

South Africa’s appeal against the punishment looks very unlikely to succeed. Former South African Football Association (SAFA) boss Raymond Hack said that there is no chance the deduction will be overturned, while South Africa’s sports minister expressed anger and called for a full investigation into how such a costly error was allowed to happen.

Now, this situation indirectly benefits Nigeria. In the group, both Nigeria and South Africa have played Zimbabwe twice. Nigeria drew both matches against Zimbabwe, earning two points, while South Africa earned four points by beating them once and drawing once. If Zimbabwe finishes last in the group, CAF’s new rule will come into play, and those matches will be ignored when ranking the best second-place teams. That means Nigeria will lose only two points from their total while South Africa will lose four points. Losing fewer points in this adjustment gives Nigeria a relative advantage over South Africa.

When you add the three-point deduction from South Africa’s FIFA punishment to the CAF rule change, Nigeria’s chances of qualifying have improved significantly. Before the deduction, South Africa had 17 points, but after losing three, they dropped to 14 points, the same as Benin, who lead on goal difference. Nigeria and Rwanda both followed closely with 11 points. Nigeria’s victory against Lesotho brought them up to 14 points as well, putting them back in the race.

CAF’s decision to exclude the results against the last team in each group for runner-up comparison and South Africa’s point deduction have combined to give Nigeria fresh hope. Many football analysts say this could be the turning point in Nigeria’s campaign. While the Super Eagles had a slow start in the qualifiers, the new developments mean that they are now just one step away from potentially topping the group or finishing as one of the best runners-up.

For Nigeria to qualify, they must now focus on winning all their remaining matches. Any slip-up could end their chances. They also need other results to go their way, such as South Africa and Benin dropping points in their upcoming games. Goal difference could also play a major role, so Nigeria needs to score as many goals as possible while maintaining a solid defense.

It is also important to note that South Africa could still appeal FIFA’s decision, although experts and officials close to the case believe it is unlikely to succeed. If the appeal fails, the current table will stand, and Nigeria will remain in a strong position to fight for qualification.

The CAF rule change also means that if Zimbabwe finishes last, Nigeria’s results against them will be ignored, reducing South Africa’s advantage even further. In this scenario, Nigeria would lose two points, while South Africa would lose four. This effectively closes the gap and could push Nigeria ahead in the playoff ranking, depending on how other groups finish.

In plain language, South Africa lost three points because they used a suspended player in a match they originally won. FIFA reversed the result and gave Lesotho the victory. At the same time, CAF changed how it compares the second-place teams across all groups, ignoring results against the lowest team in each group. Since South Africa earned more points against the likely last-placed team, Zimbabwe, they stand to lose more in this adjustment than Nigeria. The combined effect of the two decisions makes Nigeria’s chances of reaching the 2026 World Cup stronger than they were a few weeks ago.

Nigeria now has 14 points after their recent win against Lesotho, and they are level with South Africa and Benin in the standings, though goal difference will decide who tops the table. With two matches remaining, every point counts, and the Super Eagles must approach each game as a final. If they win both, they could either win the group outright or qualify as one of the best runners-up depending on the final CAF calculations.

In the end, the sudden turn of events — the disciplinary action against South Africa and the CAF rule change — has breathed new life into Nigeria’s campaign. Fans who had almost given up now have reason to believe again. The road to the World Cup remains difficult, but the door is open. Nigeria’s qualification hopes are alive once more, and with focus, determination, and a bit of luck, the Super Eagles could still soar to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.